Potential Output Growth in Emerging Market Countries

Download or read book Potential Output Growth in Emerging Market Countries written by Mr.Jorge Roldos and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-09-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates potential output and the sources of growth in Chile during 1970-96. Actual output is cointegrated with the quality-adjusted measures of capital and labor, and constant returns to scale cannot be rejected. The estimates of potential output show a positive output gap in the years when the Chilean economy was deemed to be overheated. In 1986-90, the quality-adjusted labor variable explains close to 60 percent of the growth rate of GDP, while during 1991-95 capital formation plays a dominant role. The contribution of TFP growth in Chile is relatively small, but, based on a comparison with European and East Asian experiences, it is expected to increase in the medium term.