Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) provides academic and business economists, government officials, and members of the financial and business communit

A body of recent work suggests commonly-used VAR models of output, inflation, and interest rates may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilitie

Small-scale VARs have come to be widely used in macroeconomics, for purposes ranging from forecasting output, prices, and interest rates to modeling expectation