Recent work suggests VAR models of output, inflation, and interest rates may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilities, a variety of estimati

A body of recent work suggests commonly-used VAR models of output, inflation, and interest rates may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilitie

A body of recent work suggests commonly-used VAR models of output, inflation, and interest rates may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilitie

Believing in a single model may be dangerous, and addressing model uncertainty by averaging different models in making forecasts may be very beneficial. In this

Small-scale VARs have come to be widely used in macroeconomics, for purposes ranging from forecasting output, prices, and interest rates to modeling expectation